analyze investment oil

analyze investment oil

After distillation, the type of oil to meet market demands, such as gasoline or diesel in large quantities than are the crude oil with sulfur content, high / low (Sour / Sweet Crude) the price is different. expectations or forecasts of future oil prices is quite complicated, because oil is a globally traded goods.And the practices of many groups that have different purposes and environments. The various factors involved, both directly and indirectly, however, the trends in oil prices. Can be analyzed in both the regional (Regional Area) and international (Global).The main factors that affect prices.1. Fundamental (Fundamental Factor).Including supply and demand fundamentals. (Demand / Supply), as well as products.Other consumer goods. Each type of oil supply and demand will change depending on the condition andEvents. When the supply / demand are balanced. (Inequality), it will affect prices as well.Demand than supply. (Needs more than the quantity produced), the price will rise. What makes the demand and industry u3611. I include a lack of balance.Economic growth. Factors that are correlated in the same direction as the price of oil.When high rates of economic growth. The demand for fuel on a daily basis and needs to respond to higher economic growth. If the world can not be produced up to it will result in higher oil prices. On the other hand, oil prices may decline. When the rate of economic growth is low because the market needs more oil. It must.The rate of growth of the global economy in all regions.Climate. Changing seasons is another reason, the demand for oil.Oil production, lack of balance. (Inequality), especially of consumer behavior in areas such as Europe. And U.S. oil demand will change depending on the season, obviously.This can be seen in winter. The demand for oil to get warm (Heating Oil), mostly diesel and fuel oil is more than oil, the other is the oil of this type will be implemented from quarter 4 of the year in preparation for consumption in winter. This is the beginning of the year. The oil price started to rise during the quarter. And more than that in the winter if temperatures are colder than usual, it could be a serious factor in the increase in oil demand. Cause to fear that they would not be enough oil to keep buying more. Demand than supply, causing a significant impact on prices as well as the summer travel season, which is the country's west. And in the third quarter of the year is from July, it said. The demand for gasoline is higher than other oils.Gasoline prices began rising in the second quarter, said the climate is another fundamental factor that affects the balance of supply / demand. (Demand / Supply), which has a direct impact on oil prices.Capacity of oil producers. If the amount of oil that does not comply with the requirements. Oil prices will affect them. As global oil crisis that occurred several times in the past. For this reason, countries with oil reserves and oil production levels have the authority to negotiate prices. Most oil producers, this means that a country's oil exports, or OPEC. (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), which currently has 11 countries including Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. United Arab Emirates. And Venezuela. The OPEC oil production can be controlled and managed to meet the demand. If the OPEC oil producing countries are more or less, it will inevitably affect the price of oil.For example, the protest of the employees who work on oil rigs in Nigeria spread and led to lower production volumes resulting in higher oil prices.Policies of the oil-producing countries. The policy of different oil impact.The balance of demand and supply of oil is inevitable, so the decision of OPEC, a group of manufacturers, major oil and possession of oil reserves in the world that were announced at a time would influence the price level. Oil change We see that the OPEC meeting at a time to get attention and is important to track indispensable.Oil Reserves in the country of the world's major consumers. Typically, countries with high demand for oil will hold oil reserves are a part. The stability and energy security of the country. In a situation where oil prices remained high. Oil consumer countries tend to keep the oil level is sufficient only to reduce costs.If the reserve is large enough to worry about.The tight supply of oil has dropped. Oil prices will likely decline. In the meantime, if demand for oil has increased more than estimated, would result in a lower oil content, allowing users to buy oil in the market. The tight supply. Oil prices will rise as a result of the major oil consumers such as the United States or European countries, it is important that the oil industry, not less.Renewable energy has been discovered and developed the technology to other types of energy such asNatural gas, coal, nuclear, oil, etc., to substitute more. Price competition. And ease of use for consumers. Demand and oil prices have dropped. But as long as man can not discover or develop other types of energy to replace oil. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate up and down the supply / demand imbalance is a global oil crisis that occurs every summer have been urged to turn to other types of energy to replace oil. Whenever you have to develop alternative energy and fuel sufficient to cause a balance between the demand / supply, then oil prices will stabilize.2. Factor that the oil market (Sentimental Factor).Of the nature of the oil market has characteristics that are often sensitive to any news.Than other markets. Sense of the oil market is often a key factor driving oil prices.Motion to accept the news. Is always fast. Political and economic conditions in the region usually affect the price of oil worldwide. In normal circumstances such as war.What happens if these are among the major oil producers and users of the world.Especially in the Middle East. Countries in the North Sea. United States, etc., often have an impact on oil markets and more intense than the news from other regions to monitor the situation because of this news of unrest and protest the coup. The assassination of political leaders of the OPEC member countries. Or resolutions of international organizations to influence the international political situation, it is absolutely necessary because they have the effect of fluctuations in prices due to anxiety. Despite the fact that the volume of production and exports continue to be normal. Be reduced from the original in any way.3. Technical factors (Technical Factor).Oil is traded in the market. In addition, vendors will need to keep track of news and information.The oil market fundamentals. Also required to report data after an average oil price into consideration, the current oil prices, the statistics will affect the decision to sell oil and indirectly affects the price level as well. Especially in the oil futures market (Future Market), which will have trading volume greater than the physical oil market. And most of them are.Trading for speculation. Oil futures trading market for the major. There are five of them together is the NewYork Merchantile Exchange (NYMEX) in New York at the United States, International Petroleum.Exchange (IPE) in London, England, Singapore Monetary Exchange (SGX), Singapore, Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and Shanghai Futures Exchange Japan, the People's Republic of China.4. Other factors (Miscellaneous Factor).Exchange rates. Oil is traded between countries. Prices are usually set.U.S., so the change in exchange rates. Compared to the U.S. dollar. Would have an impact on oil prices. When the U.S. dollar weakness will cause the price of crude oil imports and oil prices. Be on a local currency.However, if calculated in U.S. dollars. Oil prices will rise. When the U.S. dollar. Stronger oil prices will decline in the exchange rate has changed over the years. I made the comparison in oil prices in international markets. It is with great difficulty.SummarizeIt can be seen that no one can determine in advance the price of oil. ...... That can predict trends and prices of oil by the analysis of these factors it is clear that the oil price will vary based on factors surrounding the occurrence in each period as well. Thus, understanding the mechanisms of change in oil prices. It is an important and indispensable. It can be used to plan appropriately and promptly.However, analysis of trends in oil prices is quite complex and change.Time, with several factors involved. Oil prices will move in either direction, depending on the assumptions set out on the day of analysis, so the estimates of experts, each may vary depending on your point of view of experts that the assumptions in the projection. is how